Demographics trend in india psm mbbs
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demographic trends India PSM MBBS preventive social medicine census 2011
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I now have all the core data needed. Let me compile the full, comprehensive PSM MBBS answer on demographic trends in India.
Demographic Trends in India - PSM (Park's Textbook)
Definition of Demography
Demography is the scientific study of human populations - their size, composition, distribution, density, growth, and the processes that determine these features (fertility, mortality, migration). In Community Medicine, demographics directly inform health planning and policy.
Sources of demographic data in India:
- Population Census (decennial)
- National Sample Surveys (NSS)
- Registration of Vital Events (Civil Registration System)
- National Family Health Survey (NFHS)
- Ad hoc demographic studies
1. Population Size and Growth
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 1901 | 238 million |
| 1921 | 251 million ("Year of Big Divide") |
| 1961 | 439 million |
| 1991 | 846 million |
| 2000 | 1 billion (crossed 11th May 2000) |
| 2011 | 1.21 billion (Census 2011) |
| 2026 | ~1.44 billion (now world's most populous) |
| 2050 | Projected 1.53 billion |
Key fact: India has just 2.4% of world's land area but supports 16.8% of world population.
1921 - "Year of the Big Divide" - Population declined before 1921 due to famines and epidemics. After 1921, the population showed continuous increase, making 1921 the demographic turning point.
2. Demographic Cycle (5 Stages)
| Stage | Birth Rate | Death Rate | Population | Examples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. High Stationary | High | High | Stationary | India before 1920 |
| 2. Early Expanding | High | Declining | Rising | South Asia, Africa |
| 3. Late Expanding | Falling | Further declining | Still growing | India currently |
| 4. Low Stationary | Low | Low | Stationary | Austria, Sweden, Denmark |
| 5. Decline | Lower | Higher | Declining | Germany, East Europe |
India is in Stage 3 (Late Expanding) phase - death rate has declined more than birth rate, population continues to grow.
3. Birth Rate and Death Rate Trends (Table 18 - Park's PSM)
| Year | Birth Rate | Death Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1941-1950 | 39.9 | 27.4 |
| 1951-1960 | 41.7 | 22.8 |
| 1961-1970 | 41.2 | 19.0 |
| 1971-1980 | 37.2 | 15.0 |
| 1991 | 29.5 | 9.8 |
| 2002 | 25.0 | 8.1 |
| 2010 | 22.1 | 7.2 |
| 2015 | 20.0 | 7.0 |
| 2018 | 20.0 | 6.2 |
Key observation: Death rate declined more steeply than birth rate -> net gain in births over deaths -> population explosion. This is the classic demographic gap.
Causes of high birth rate in India:
- Universality of marriage (marriage is sacramental)
- Early marriage (~60% girls aged 15-19 already married)
- Early puberty (12-14 years in Indian girls)
- Low standard of living
- Low literacy (74.04% - Census 2011)
- Traditional customs (son preference, children as "gift of God")
- Absence of family planning habit
Causes of declining death rate:
- Absence of natural checks (famines, epidemics)
- Mass control of communicable diseases
- Improved nutrition and living standards
- Improved health care services
4. Fertility Indicators (2018 data - NFHS/SRS)
| Indicator | Total | Rural | Urban |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Birth Rate | 20.0 | 21.6 | 16.7 |
| General Fertility Rate | 70.4 | 77.4 | 56.7 |
| Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
- TFR has declined dramatically from ~6 in the 1950s to 2.2 in 2018
- Replacement level TFR = 2.1
- India has nearly achieved replacement-level fertility (rural still above, urban below)
TFR by religion (NFHS-4):
- Muslims: 2.61
- Hindus: 2.13
- Christians: 1.99
5. Sex Ratio
- Overall sex ratio (Census 2011): 940 females per 1000 males
- Child sex ratio (0-6 years): 914 per 1000 - reached an all-time low since 1961 (alarming!)
- In age group >60 years: female population is more than male
- In age group 0-14 years: male population is more
Implications: Declining child sex ratio reflects female foeticide/sex-selective abortions despite PCPNDT Act.
6. Population Density
- Density = number of persons per km²
- Continuously increasing in India
- Census 2011: 382 persons/km²
- Most densely populated state: Bihar (1106/km²)
- Least densely populated state: Arunachal Pradesh (17/km²)
7. Age-Sex Composition (Population Pyramid)
- 0-14 years: Declining (but still large proportion) - more males
- 15-59 years (working age): Increasing - Demographic Dividend
- 60+ years: Increasing - ageing population
Population below 14 years is showing decline while elderly population is increasing - indicates epidemiological and demographic transition.
8. Literacy Rate (Census 2011)
- Overall: 74.04%
- Male literacy: 82.14%
- Female literacy: 65.46%
- Highest literacy: Kerala (94%); Mizoram (91.58%)
- Lowest literacy: Bihar (63.82%)
Female literacy is a major determinant of fertility, infant mortality, and health-seeking behaviour.
9. Urbanisation
- Urban population (Census 2011): 31.16% of total
- Continuously increasing
- By 2036 projection: urban increase of 22.4 crores out of total increase of 30.7 crores
Urbanisation impacts: Changed disease patterns (NCDs increase), changed fertility (lower TFR in urban areas), migration issues.
10. Dependency Ratio
$$\text{Dependency Ratio} = \frac{\text{Population (0-14 yrs)} + \text{Population (>65 yrs)}}{\text{Population (15-64 yrs)}} \times 100$$
- Young age dependency ratio - population <14 years / working population
- Old age dependency ratio - population >65 years / working population
Demographic Bonus (Dividend): Period when dependency ratio declines due to declining fertility as part of development. India is currently in this phase - large working-age population relative to dependents.
Demographic Burden: Increase in total dependency ratio, mostly caused by increased old-age dependency ratio (future concern for India).
11. Natural Growth Rate
Natural Growth Rate = Birth Rate - Death Rate
- Also called Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
- India 2018: 20.0 - 6.2 = 13.8 per 1000 per year (approx.)
- This means India adds ~18-19 million people per year
12. Life Expectancy at Birth
- 1951: 36.7 years (male), 36.2 years (female)
- 2014-18 estimate: ~69 years overall
- Female life expectancy now exceeds male (as in all developed countries)
- Improvement due to declining infant/child mortality, better nutrition, healthcare
13. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
- IMR = deaths under 1 year per 1000 live births
- 1941-1950: ~175
- 2018: 32 per 1000 live births (SRS 2018)
- Rural IMR still higher than urban
- Goal: <30 (NHP 2017)
Quick Summary for MCQs
| Indicator | Value (Census 2011 / Recent) |
|---|---|
| Total population | 1.21 billion (2011); ~1.44 billion (2024) |
| Annual growth rate | 1.64% (2001-2011) |
| Sex ratio | 940/1000 |
| Child sex ratio (0-6 yrs) | 914/1000 (all-time low) |
| Density | 382/km² |
| Literacy | 74.04% |
| TFR (2018) | 2.2 |
| CBR (2018) | 20.0 |
| CDR (2018) | 6.2 |
| IMR (2018) | 32 |
| Year of Big Divide | 1921 |
| India's demographic stage | Late Expanding (Stage 3) |
Source: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 25th ed. - Demography chapter; NFHS-4; SRS 2018
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