Here is a complete, textbook-based summary of the reduction criteria for distal end radius fractures.
Parameters associated with poor outcome and likely need for operative management:
If 3 or more of the following are present on the initial radiograph, secondary displacement despite closed reduction is likely, suggesting the need for operative management:
Note: Nesbitt et al. later validated these criteria and found age was the strongest single predictor of secondary displacement. MacKenney et al. (reviewing ~4,000 fractures) identified age, ulnar variance, and metaphyseal comminution as the most consistent predictors - and notably, dorsal angulation was not a significant predictor in that study.
For fractures treated closed with radiographic features that increase instability risk: weekly radiographs for the first 3 weeks are recommended so early surgical intervention can occur if the fracture displaces unacceptably.