Epidemiological Indices - Complete Guide
A. MEASURES OF DISEASE FREQUENCY
1. INCIDENCE
Definition:
The number of NEW cases of a disease occurring in a defined population during a specified period of time.
Formula:
Incidence Rate = (New cases in time period / Population at risk) × 1000
Types:
| Type | Formula | Use |
|---|
| Incidence Rate (person-time) | New cases / Person-years at risk | When observation periods differ |
| Cumulative Incidence (Attack Rate) | New cases / Initial population at risk | Epidemic situations |
Example:
- 50 new TB cases in a population of 10,000 in one year
- Incidence = 50/10,000 × 1000 = 5 per 1000 per year
Key Points:
- Measures risk of developing disease
- Requires follow-up over time
- Used in cohort studies
- Reflects speed of disease spread
2. PREVALENCE
Definition:
The total number of cases (new + old existing) of a disease in a defined population at a given point or period.
Types:
| Type | Formula | Description |
|---|
| Point Prevalence | Cases at one point in time / Population at that time | Snapshot at one moment |
| Period Prevalence | Cases during a period / Average population | Over a defined period |
Formula:
Prevalence = (Total existing cases / Total population) × 1000
Example:
- 200 TB cases (new + old) in population of 10,000
- Prevalence = 200/10,000 × 1000 = 20 per 1000
Key Points:
- Measures burden of disease
- Useful for planning health services
- Used in cross-sectional studies
- Affected by incidence AND duration of disease
3. RELATIONSHIP: Incidence vs Prevalence
Prevalence = Incidence × Duration of disease
P = I × D
| Factor | Effect on Prevalence |
|---|
| Increased incidence | Increases prevalence |
| Longer disease duration | Increases prevalence |
| High cure rate | Decreases prevalence |
| High case fatality | Decreases prevalence |
| Immigration of cases | Increases prevalence |
Key Difference:
| Feature | Incidence | Prevalence |
|---|
| Cases counted | New only | New + Old (all existing) |
| Time element | Yes (rate) | Point/period |
| Measures | Risk | Burden |
| Study design | Cohort | Cross-sectional |
| Use | Etiology, causation | Health planning |
B. MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION
4. RELATIVE RISK (RR) - Risk Ratio
Definition:
The ratio of incidence of disease in the exposed group to the incidence in the unexposed group.
Formula:
RR = Incidence in exposed / Incidence in unexposed
Using 2×2 Table:
Disease+ Disease-
Exposed a b
Not Exposed c d
RR = [a/(a+b)] / [c/(c+d)]
Interpretation:
| RR Value | Meaning |
|---|
| RR = 1 | No association |
| RR > 1 | Positive association (risk factor) |
| RR < 1 | Negative association (protective factor) |
| RR = 2 | Exposed have 2× the risk of unexposed |
Example:
- Smokers: 80 lung cancer cases out of 1000
- Non-smokers: 10 lung cancer cases out of 1000
- RR = (80/1000) / (10/1000) = 8
- Smokers have 8 times the risk of developing lung cancer
Key Points:
- Used in cohort studies
- Cannot be calculated in case-control studies
- Best measure of strength of association
5. ODDS RATIO (OR)
Definition:
The ratio of odds of exposure among cases to the odds of exposure among controls.
Formula using 2×2 table:
OR = (a × d) / (b × c)
Disease+ Disease-
Exposed a b
Not Exposed c d
OR = ad/bc
When to use:
- Case-control studies (RR cannot be calculated)
- Rare diseases (OR approximates RR when disease is rare - rare disease assumption)
Interpretation: Same as RR
- OR = 1 → No association
- OR > 1 → Risk factor
- OR < 1 → Protective
6. ATTRIBUTABLE RISK (AR) - Risk Difference
Definition:
The difference in incidence between exposed and unexposed groups - tells how much of the disease is attributable to the exposure.
Formula:
AR = Incidence in exposed - Incidence in unexposed
AR = Ie - Iu
Example (from above):
- AR = 80/1000 - 10/1000 = 70 per 1000
- 70 cases per 1000 are attributable to smoking
Population Attributable Risk (PAR):
PAR = Incidence in total population - Incidence in unexposed
- Useful for public health policy - how much disease would be prevented if exposure removed
7. ATTRIBUTABLE RISK PERCENT (AR%)
AR% = (Ie - Iu) / Ie × 100
- Tells what % of disease in exposed is due to exposure
- Example: AR% = 70/80 × 100 = 87.5% of lung cancer in smokers is due to smoking
Complete Summary Table:
| Index | Formula | Study Design | Measures |
|---|
| Incidence | New cases/Pop at risk | Cohort | Risk of disease |
| Prevalence | All cases/Population | Cross-sectional | Burden of disease |
| Relative Risk | Ie/Iu | Cohort | Strength of association |
| Odds Ratio | ad/bc | Case-control | Association (rare disease) |
| Attributable Risk | Ie - Iu | Cohort | Excess risk due to exposure |
| AR% | (Ie-Iu)/Ie × 100 | Cohort | % risk attributable to exposure |
Exam Favourite Points:
- RR is used in cohort studies; OR is used in case-control studies
- OR approximates RR when disease is rare (rare disease assumption)
- Prevalence = Incidence × Duration (P = I × D)
- AR tells public health importance; RR tells biological/causal strength
- RR and OR both = 1 means no association
- Attack rate = cumulative incidence used in outbreak investigation
- Secondary attack rate (SAR) = new cases among contacts / total susceptible contacts