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(Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine)
1. Epidemiological Approach
The epidemiological approach to problems of health and disease is based on two major foundations:
a. Asking Questions
Epidemiology has been defined as "a means of learning or asking questions....and getting answers that lead to further questions."
Questions related to health events:
- What is the event? (the problem)
- What is its magnitude?
- Where did it happen?
- When did it happen?
- Who are affected?
- Why did it happen?
Questions related to health action:
- What can be done to reduce this problem?
- How can it be prevented in the future?
- What resources are required?
b. Making Comparisons
The basic approach in epidemiology is to make comparisons and draw inferences - comparing one group having the disease (or exposed to risk factor) and another group not having the disease (or not exposed). By making comparisons, the epidemiologist tries to find out crucial differences in host and environmental factors between those affected and not affected.
Before making comparisons, "comparability" must be ensured - both groups should be similar so that "like can be compared with like." This is best achieved by:
- Randomization - in experimental studies
- Matching - in case control and cohort studies
- Standardization - usually limited to age, sex and parity
2. Tools of Measurement (Rate, Ratio, Proportion)
The epidemiologist expresses disease magnitude as a rate, ratio or proportion. The basic tools of measurement are:
1. Rate
A rate measures the occurrence of some particular event in a defined population during a given time period. It is a statement of the risk of developing a condition. It indicates change in some event in a population over time.
Death rate = Number of deaths in one year / Mid-year population × 1000
A rate comprises: numerator, denominator, time specification and multiplier.
- Crude rates - actual observed rates (e.g., birth rate, death rate)
- Specific rates - for specific causes, groups or time periods
- Standardized rates - adjusted for age/sex by direct or indirect standardization
2. Ratio
Expresses a relation in size between two random quantities. The numerator is not a component of the denominator.
Expressed as x : y or x/y
Examples: sex ratio, doctor-population ratio, case fatality ratio.
3. Proportion
A proportion is a type of ratio in which the numerator is included in the denominator. It is expressed as a percentage.
Example:
Proportion = Number of cases of disease A / Total cases of all diseases × 100
Key distinction: In a rate, time is an essential component. In a proportion, the numerator is always a part of the denominator.
3. Mortality Rates
Mortality rates are the most important and widely used rates in epidemiology. Important mortality rates include:
1. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
= Total deaths in a year / Mid-year population × 1000
2. Specific Death Rate
= Deaths in a specific group (age/sex/cause) / Population of that group × 1000
3. Case Fatality Rate (Ratio)
= Total deaths due to a particular disease / Total cases of same disease × 100
- Represents the killing power of a disease. Used for acute infectious diseases.
4. Proportional Mortality Rate (PMR)
= Deaths from a specific cause in a year / Total deaths from all causes × 100
- Tells what proportion of total deaths are due to a particular cause.
5. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
= Deaths in children under 1 year in a year / Total live births in the same year × 1000
- Most sensitive indicator of health status of a community.
6. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR)
= Observed deaths in study population / Expected deaths (from standard population) × 100
- Used when age composition of two populations differs.
4. Incidence and Prevalence
INCIDENCE
Incidence rate is defined as "the number of new cases occurring in a defined population during a specified period of time."
Incidence = Number of new cases of specific disease during a given time period / Population at-risk during that period × 1000
Key points:
- Refers only to new cases
- During a given time period (usually one year)
- In a specified population at risk
- Use is generally restricted to acute conditions
Special incidence rates: Attack rate, Secondary attack rate, Hospital admission rate.
PREVALENCE
Prevalence refers specifically to all current cases (old and new) existing at a given point or over a period of time in a given population.
Prevalence is of two types:
(a) Point prevalence - number of all current cases of a disease at one point of time, in relation to a defined population.
(b) Period prevalence - number of cases existing at any time during a specified period of time.
Relationship between Prevalence and Incidence:
P = I × D (where P = prevalence, I = incidence, D = average duration of disease)
Prevalence depends on both the incidence rate and the duration of disease. A disease of short duration (e.g., common cold) will have low prevalence despite high incidence. A chronic disease (e.g., leprosy) has high prevalence despite low incidence.
5. Strength of Association in Case Control and Cohort Studies (Odds Ratio, Relative Risk, Attributable Risk, Population Attributable Risk)
RELATIVE RISK (RR)
RR is the ratio of the incidence of disease among exposed to the incidence among non-exposed.
RR = Incidence among exposed / Incidence among non-exposed
- RR = 1 → no association
- RR > 1 → positive association
- RR of 10 → exposed group is 10 times more at risk
ATTRIBUTABLE RISK (AR)
AR is the difference in incidence rates between exposed and non-exposed groups.
AR = Incidence rate (exposed) - Incidence rate (non-exposed) / Incidence rate (exposed) × 100
It indicates to what extent the disease can be attributed to the exposure. If AR = 90%, it means 90% of the disease among exposed was due to that exposure - and could be eliminated if the exposure were removed.
POPULATION ATTRIBUTABLE RISK (PAR)
PAR = Incidence in total population - Incidence in unexposed group.
It indicates the excess rate of disease in the total population that is attributable to the exposure. Useful for public health decision-making - tells how much disease in the whole population would be prevented if the exposure were eliminated.
ODDS RATIO (OR)
From a case control study, the Odds Ratio estimates the relative risk when direct incidence cannot be measured. Based on the 2×2 table:
OR = ad/bc
Assumptions: (a) disease must be relatively rare; (b) cases must be representative of those with the disease; (c) controls must be representative of those without the disease. OR ≈ RR when disease is rare.
6. Advantages and Disadvantages of Cohort Study
ADVANTAGES:
- Gives direct measurement of incidence and relative risk.
- Establishes temporal sequence - exposure precedes disease (cause to effect).
- Can study multiple effects of a single exposure (e.g., smoking and lung cancer, heart disease, etc.).
- Minimizes bias in exposure assessment since exposure is ascertained before disease occurs.
- Allows detailed study of the natural history of disease.
- Suitable when exposure is rare.
- Selection bias is minimal.
DISADVANTAGES:
- Expensive and time consuming - particularly for chronic diseases with long latency.
- Requires large sample size.
- Attrition (follow-up losses) can be a problem - migration, death, loss of interest.
- Not suitable for rare diseases (large population needed).
- Changes in diagnostic criteria or methods over time can affect results.
- Not suitable for diseases with long induction period.
7. Advantages and Disadvantages of Case Control Studies
ADVANTAGES:
- Relatively easy to carry out.
- Rapid and inexpensive compared with cohort studies.
- Require comparatively few subjects.
- Particularly suitable to investigate rare diseases.
- No risk to subjects.
- Allows study of several different aetiological factors (e.g., smoking, physical activity, personality in myocardial infarction).
- Risk factors can be identified.
- No attrition problems - do not require follow-up into the future.
- Ethical problems minimal.
DISADVANTAGES:
- Problems of bias - relies on memory or past records; validation is difficult.
- Selection of an appropriate control group may be difficult.
- Cannot measure incidence - can only estimate relative risk.
- Do not distinguish between causes and associated factors.
- Not suited to evaluation of therapy or prophylaxis.
- Representativeness of cases and controls may be questionable.
8. Differences Between Case Control and Cohort Study
The design diagrams of both studies:
FIG. 8 - Schematic diagram of the design of case control and cohort studies
| Feature | Case Control | Cohort Study |
|---|
| Direction | Effect → Cause (retrospective) | Cause → Effect (prospective) |
| Starting point | Disease already present | Exposure present, disease not yet |
| Measures | Odds Ratio | Relative Risk (direct) |
| Time | Short | Long |
| Cost | Less expensive | Expensive |
| Sample size | Smaller | Larger |
| Rare diseases | Suitable | Not suitable |
| Incidence | Cannot measure | Can measure |
| Bias | Recall bias, selection bias | Minimal exposure bias |
| Follow-up | Not required | Required |
(This table is reproduced from the comparative framework in Park's SPM)
9. Types of Bias in Case Control and Cohort Studies
Bias is defined as any systematic error in the determination of the association between the exposure and disease. It reflects non-comparability between study and control groups.
Types of bias in case control studies:
(a) Confounding bias - a third variable (confounder) distorts the association between exposure and disease. Controlled by matching.
(b) Memory or recall bias - cases are more likely to recall past exposures than controls. E.g., those who had myocardial infarction recall past habits more vividly than healthy controls.
(c) Selection bias - cases and controls may not be representative of those in the general population.
(d) Berkesonian bias - named after Dr. Joseph Berkeson. Arises because of different rates of hospital admission for people with different diseases - hospital cases and hospital controls may not represent the general population.
(e) Interviewer's bias - the interviewer knowing the hypothesis may question cases more thoroughly than controls. Controlled by double-blinding.
Bias in cohort studies:
- Loss to follow-up (attrition bias) - if those lost to follow-up differ from those retained, results are biased.
- Information bias - differential measurement of exposure in exposed and unexposed groups.
- Selection bias - at the time of assembling the cohort.
10. Steps in Cohort Study / Case Control Study
Steps in a Case Control Study:
- Selection of cases and controls - define case with diagnostic criteria and eligibility criteria; select appropriate controls.
- Matching - cases and controls matched for confounding factors (age, sex, occupation, social status).
- Measurement of exposure - obtain data on past exposure by interview, questionnaire, records.
- Analysis and interpretation - compute Odds Ratio (OR = ad/bc) from the 2×2 table.
Steps in a Cohort Study (Elements):
- Selection of study subjects - from general population or special/exposure groups.
- Obtaining data on exposure - exposure measured before disease occurrence.
- Selection of comparison groups - unexposed from the same population.
- Follow-up - examine study and control groups at defined intervals over time.
- Analysis - compute incidence rates and relative risk in exposed vs unexposed.
11. Randomization and Blinding
RANDOMIZATION
Randomization is "a statistical procedure by which the participants are allocated into groups - usually called 'study' and 'control' groups - to receive or not to receive an experimental preventive or therapeutic procedure."
Randomization is the "heart" of a controlled trial. It:
- Eliminates selection bias
- Ensures every individual gets an equal chance of being allocated to either group
- Ensures comparability - "like can be compared with like"
- Distributes unknown confounding factors equally between groups (which matching cannot achieve)
Randomization is done using a table of random numbers. It is done only after the participant has entered the study and given informed consent.
BLINDING
Blinding is adopted to ensure that the outcome is assessed objectively. It guards against subject variation, observer bias and evaluator bias.
Three types:
- (a) Single blind trial - participant is not aware of group allocation.
- (b) Double blind trial - neither the doctor nor the participant is aware of group allocation and treatment received. Most frequently used.
- (c) Triple blind trial - participant, investigator AND the person analyzing data are all "blind." Ideal but rarely used.
When death is the outcome being measured, blinding is not essential.
12. Bradford Hill Criteria for Judging Causality
In the absence of controlled experimental evidence, certain additional criteria have been evolved to decide when an association may be considered causal. Bradford Hill pointed out that the likelihood of a causal relationship is increased by the presence of the following criteria:
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Temporal association - The suspected cause must precede the effect. Exposure must occur before the disease. This is the most basic requirement.
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Strength of association - The larger the relative risk, the greater the likelihood of a causal association. Also strengthened by a dose-response relationship - increasing exposure → increasing incidence.
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Specificity of association - The cause leads to one specific disease, and the disease results from that one specific cause. Increases likelihood of causation.
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Consistency of association - The association has been repeatedly observed by different researchers, in different places, circumstances and times.
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Biological plausibility - The association makes biological sense based on known biological mechanisms.
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Coherence of association - The causal interpretation should not seriously conflict with known facts of the natural history and biology of the disease.
The Surgeon-General's Report (1964) states: "The causal significance of an association is a matter of judgement which goes beyond any statement of statistical probability." All criteria together contribute to the probability of the association being causal.
13. Uses of Epidemiology
Morris identified seven distinct uses of epidemiology:
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To study historically the rise and fall of disease - studying the history of disease in human populations, time trends, making projections about emerging health problems.
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Community diagnosis - identification and quantification of health problems in a community in terms of mortality and morbidity rates; identifying groups at risk; defining priorities in disease control.
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Planning and evaluation - epidemiological information forms the basis for planning and developing health services; evaluating whether control measures are effective.
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Evaluation of individual risks - identifying individual risk factors. The concept of "risk" is now applied to individual patients in clinical medicine.
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Completing the clinical picture - clinical medicine describes the disease from the time patient presents; epidemiology completes the picture by describing the full spectrum including subclinical and inapparent disease.
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Identification of syndromes - recognition and description of new diseases and syndromes (e.g., AIDS, Legionnaires' disease).
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Search for causes - the original and still the most important use; studying the distribution of disease and seeking its determinants.
14. Types of Epidemic and Epidemic Curve
An epidemic is defined as "the occurrence in a community or region of cases of an illness clearly in excess of expectancy."
Epidemic Curve - A graph of the time distribution of epidemic cases. The epidemic curve may suggest: (1) a time relationship with exposure to a suspected source, (2) a cyclical or seasonal pattern, and (3) whether spread is common-source or propagated.
Three major types of epidemics:
A. Common-Source Epidemics
(a) Single-exposure / Point-source epidemic
- Exposure to the disease agent is brief and essentially simultaneous
- All cases develop within one incubation period
- Epidemic curve: rises and falls rapidly, one peak, explosive
- Example: food poisoning
FIG. 4 - Epidemic Curve (Source: Park's SPM)
(b) Continuous/multiple exposure epidemic
- Exposure is prolonged or repeated over time
- Epidemic curve: prolonged plateau rather than sharp peak
B. Propagated Epidemics
- Spread from person to person (or via vectors/animal reservoirs)
- Successive waves of cases - each wave larger than the previous
- Epidemic curve: series of waves, each separated by approximately one incubation period
- Sub-types: (a) Person-to-person (b) Arthropod vector (c) Animal reservoir
- Example: measles, influenza
C. Slow (Modern) Epidemics
- Long induction period; disease develops slowly over many years
- Example: coronary heart disease, cancer, obesity
15. Live vs Killed Vaccines
Park's Table 30 - Comparison of characteristics of killed and live vaccines:
| Characteristic | Killed Vaccine | Live Vaccine |
|---|
| Number of doses | Multiple | Single |
| Need for adjuvant | Yes | No |
| Duration of immunity | Shorter | Longer |
| Effectiveness of protection | Lower | Greater (mimics natural infection) |
| Immunoglobulins produced | IgG | IgA and IgG |
| Mucosal immunity | Poor | Yes |
| Cell-mediated immunity | Poor | Yes |
| Residual virulent virus | Possible | No |
| Reversion to virulence | No | Possible |
| Excretion/transmission to contacts | No | Possible |
| Interference by other viruses | No | Possible |
| Stability at room temperature | High | Low |
(Table 30, Park's SPM - reproduced as it appears in the textbook)
Examples of live vaccines: BCG, OPV, MMR, yellow fever, varicella, typhoid (oral Ty21a)
Examples of killed/inactivated vaccines: IPV, hepatitis A, pertussis (whole cell), cholera, typhoid (injectable), rabies (post-exposure)
16a. Cold Chain
The "cold chain" is "a system of storage and transport of vaccines at low temperature from the manufacturer to the actual vaccination site."
Cold chain is necessary because vaccine failure may occur due to failure to store and transport under strict temperature controls. The success of the national immunization programme is highly dependent on a supply chain system that meets 6 rights: the right vaccine, in the right quantity, at the right place, at the right time, in the right condition (no temperature breaks), and at the right cost.
Temperature requirements:
- Vaccines are sensitive biological products - some sensitive to freezing, some to heat, others to light.
- Once lost, vaccine potency cannot be regained.
- Vaccines sensitive to freezing (must be kept above 0°C): hepatitis B, DTP, IPV, cholera, pentavalent, HPV.
- Vaccines sensitive to heat must be kept at +2°C to +8°C.
Cold chain equipment includes:
- Electrical equipment: ice-lined refrigerators (ILR), deep freezers, refrigerators
- Solar cold chain equipment
- Non-electrical equipment: cold boxes, vaccine carriers, ice packs
16b. Vaccine Vial Monitor (VVM)
A Vaccine Vial Monitor (VVM) is a label on a vaccine vial that changes colour when the vaccine has been exposed to excessive heat over time, indicating whether the vaccine has been damaged by heat exposure.
The VVM is a heat-sensitive device placed on vaccine vials. It consists of a circle with a square inside:
- If the square is lighter than the circle - vaccine is safe to use
- If the square matches or is darker than the circle - vaccine is NOT to be used
VVMs help health workers identify whether a vaccine has maintained potency throughout the cold chain. They are particularly useful in field conditions and at peripheral level health facilities.
17. Steps in Investigation of an Epidemic
Steps in epidemic investigation (as per Park's SPM):
1. Verification of diagnosis
- Confirm cases with clinical examination and laboratory investigations where applicable.
- Do not delay epidemiological investigation waiting for lab results.
2. Confirmation of the existence of an epidemic
- Compare current disease frequency with the same period of previous years.
- Epidemic exists when observed frequency is in excess of expected frequency.
3. Defining the population at-risk
- Obtain a detailed map of the area.
- Count the population (denominator) by house-to-house visits.
- Compute attack rates by age and sex.
4. Rapid search for all cases and their characteristics
- Medical survey of defined area to identify all cases including those who have not sought medical care.
- Search for secondary cases daily until area is free of epidemic.
5. Data analysis
- Analyze by time (epidemic curve), place (spot map) and person (age, sex, occupation).
- Clustering of cases on spot map may indicate common source.
- Example: John Snow's cholera investigation, 1854.
6. Formulation of hypotheses
- Based on time, place and person distribution, formulate hypotheses about: (a) possible source (b) causative agent (c) modes of spread (d) environmental factors.
7. Testing of hypotheses
- Test the formulated hypothesis by analytical studies (case control or cohort study).
8. Evaluation of ecological factors
- Study environmental, social and host factors to understand why the epidemic occurred.
9. Further investigation of the environment
- Examine water supply, food, sewage, vectors, animals as possible sources.
10. Institution of control measures
- Implement control as soon as the source is identified. Do not wait for full investigation.
11. Written report
- Prepare a complete written report of findings, conclusions and recommendations.
18. Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI)
An AEFI is any untoward medical occurrence which follows immunization and which does not necessarily have a causal relationship with the usage of the vaccine.
Events that should be reported after immunization:
Within 24-48 hours:
- Anaphylactoid reaction (acute hypersensitivity)
- Anaphylaxis
- Persistent (>3 hours) inconsolable screaming
- Hypotonic hyporesponsive episode (HHE)
- Toxic shock syndrome (TSS)
Within 7 days:
- Severe local reaction
- Sepsis
- Injection site abscess (bacterial/sterile)
Within 14 days:
- Seizures (including febrile seizures)
Difference between fainting and anaphylaxis (Park's Table 39):
| Feature | Fainting | Anaphylaxis |
|---|
| Timing | Before, during or few minutes after injection | Short time, up to a few hours |
| Skin | Pale, cold, clammy | Itching, erythema, urticaria, swelling |
| Respiratory | Normal/shallow breathing | Tachypnoea, wheezing, stridor, cyanosis |
| CVS | Bradycardia, hypotension reversed by supine position | Tachycardia, hypotension NOT reversed |
| CNS | Light-headedness relieved by supine posture | Anxiety, distress, loss of consciousness not relieved |
(Table 39, Park's SPM - reproduced as it appears)
Prevention of AEFI:
- Proper sterilization of syringes and needles
- Proper selection of subject and product
- Reconstituted vaccine discarded after each session
- Training and supervision of immunization workers
19. National Immunization Schedule
The National Immunization Schedule (NIS) of India outlines the vaccines to be given to infants, children and pregnant women as part of the Universal Immunization Programme (UIP).
Key vaccines in the National Immunization Schedule:
At birth:
- BCG (intradermal, 0.1 ml)
- OPV-0 (birth dose)
- Hepatitis B (birth dose)
At 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 14 weeks:
- OPV (1, 2, 3)
- Pentavalent vaccine (DTP + Hep B + Hib)
- IPV (at 6 and 14 weeks)
- Rotavirus vaccine
- PCV (Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine)
At 9-12 months:
- Measles/MR vaccine (1st dose)
- Vitamin A (1st dose)
- JE vaccine (in endemic areas)
At 16-24 months (booster):
- DTP booster
- OPV booster
- Measles/MR (2nd dose)
- Vitamin A (2nd dose and every 6 months up to 5 years)
At 5-6 years:
- DT (diphtheria-tetanus) booster
At 10 and 16 years:
- TT (tetanus toxoid) booster
Pregnant women:
- TT (2 doses, or 1 booster if previously immunized)
The ultimate goal of the immunization programme is to reduce morbidity and mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases and to achieve eradication/elimination of specific diseases.
Source: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, ISBN 9789382219163